The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a pivotal trade agreement between the United States and several sub-Saharan African nations, expired on 30 September 2025. Since its enactment in 2000, AGOA had been instrumental in strengthening United States/Africa economic ties by offering duty free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products from eligible African countries (in addition to more than 5,000 products previously listed under the U.S. Generalised System of Preferences, a separate and long-standing U.S. trade program that itself expired at the end of 2020). The expiry of AGOA raises questions about the future of trade between the U.S. and East Africa, particularly for key regional players like Kenya and Tanzania. Unless AGOA is reinstated or replaced with an analogous arrangement soon, the effects of this change will likely be felt across various sectors, necessitating a strategic recalibration for these countries and their respective industries.
This article considers the impact of AGOA’s expiry on Tanzania and Kenya, with a focus on trade tariffs, sectoral implications, and potential alternative trade agreements that may fill the void. In so doing, the article builds on our earlier series of articles which, amongst other things, highlighted the vulnerabilities and strategic considerations surrounding AGOA’s potential expiry for Kenya. In a previous alert titled, Tariffs, Trade and Trump: Is Kenya Prepared for the 9 July Deadline?, we examined the uncertainty surrounding AGOA’s renewal and the risks posed by shifting U.S. trade policy. Similarly, our other legal alert titled, America First, Kenya at Risk: Breaking Down the 10% Tariff Impact on the Textile and Apparel Industry explored the direct implications of tariff re-imposition on Kenya’s garment sector, emphasising the need for proactive policy and industry responses.
Now that AGOA has expired, the concerns identified in those articles have materialised, underscoring the urgent need for Kenya and Tanzania to adapt to a new trade reality. This piece extends that analysis by assessing the actual impact of AGOA’s expiry an d exploring alternative trade pathways that could help mitigate the consequences.
The AGOA Framework and Its Impact on Kenya and Tanzania
AGOA’s primary purpose was to enhance trade relations between sub-Saharan African countries and the U.S., fostering sustainable economic development and encouraging economic diversification. Under AGOA, eligible countries could export a wide range of goods to the U.S. without incurring the tariffs typically applied to non-AGOA countries. This was particularly advantageous to industries in Kenya and Tanzania that relied heavily on the U.S. market. Historically, several key sectors in both Kenya and Tanzania have benefited from AGOA:
- Textiles and Apparel: Kenya emerged as one of the leading beneficiaries of AGOA in the textile and apparel sector. AGOA allowed Kenyan textile manufacturers to export garments to the U.S. duty-free, which boosted employment and spurred growth in Kenya’s manufacturing sector. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, Kenya has been the largest exporter of apparel from sub-Saharan Africa to the U.S. under AGOA. This market access has enabled the Kenyan textile industry to grow rapidly. The 2025 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) Economic Survey reports apparel exports under AGOA were worth KES 60.6 billion (approx. USD 470 million) and supported over 66,000 jobs in accredited export firms. This represented a notable increase of more than 19% from apparel exports totalling KES 50.8 billion (approx. USD 450 million) recorded in 2023.
- Agricultural Products: Tanzania and Kenya both benefited significantly from AGOA’s preferential access to the U.S. market for agricultural products. In Kenya, cut flowers (particularly roses), have been a notable export, while Tanzania has seen growth in exports of coffee, nuts, and certain horticultural products. The preferential access granted by AGOA gave both countries a competitive edge over other non-AGOA African countries and other developing nations.
- Handicrafts and Traditional Goods: Both countries’ artisanal sectors, which produce traditional handicrafts and other cultural goods, gained access to the U.S. market under AGOA. This trade has supported the livelihoods of local artisans and contributed to the diversification of export good s from East Africa.
Consequences of AGOA’s Expiry for Trade Tariffs and Market Access
The expiry of AGOA has created an immediate challenge for Kenyan and Tanzanian exporters who relied on duty-free access to the U.S. market. The United Nations Conference for Development (UNCTAD) posits that cessation of these preferential trade terms will likely lead to the reimposition of standard U.S. tariffs. The impact of this is likely to be especially significant for key sectors such as textiles and agriculture. The Kenyan garment sector, for example, could see its cost competitiveness diminished, particularly if other developing countries are successful in negotiating trade agreements with the U.S. that offer similar or better market access.
In agriculture, the re-imposition of tariffs could discourage investment in the horticulture and floriculture sectors, where Kenyan and Tanzanian products often face intense competition from Latin American and Asian countries. Both governments and exporter s will need to consider innovative solutions to offset the lost duty-free advantage, including improved product quality, marketing, and production efficiencies.
For Tanzania, a country with more limited access to the U.S. market compared to Kenya, the expiration of AGOA may not have as immediate an effect on trade flows, but it may still serve as a setback in efforts to diversify exports and attract foreign investment. Tanzania's industrial ambitions, particularly in manufacturing, may be hindered by the loss of preferential treatment in specific sectors .
Sectoral Impact: Key Industries in Focus
- Textiles and Apparel: Kenya has been the largest beneficiary of AGOA in this sector. The World Bank and ICE Italian Agency report that over 70% of Kenya’s textile and apparel exports go to the U.S. market. This market represents a vital source of demand for Kenya’s garment industry, particularly for Kenyan producers who source fabrics from China or India and add value through design, finishing, and assembly. The expiry of AGOA will likely force Kenyan textile manufacturers to either absorb the cost of U.S. tariffs or explore new markets.
- Agriculture: According to UNCTAD, both Kenya and Tanzania have been major exporters of agricultural products under AGOA, especially in cut flowers, coffee, and horticultural products. Although significantly behind the European market, the U.S. market has been a significant consumer of Kenyan roses and other flowers. The expiry of AGOA could reduce demand 3 for East African agricultural products in the U.S. and increase logistical costs. With the reimposition of tariffs, Kenyan and Tanzanian agricultural exporters may face increased competition from other global exporters, such as Latin American countries.
- Manufacturing: Manufacturing sectors in both countries could find it more challenging to penetrate the U.S. market without the preferential trade terms previously available under AGOA. In the medium to long term, Tanzania and Kenya may need to refocus their manufacturing strategies t oward alternative markets within Africa or shift towards higher-value manufacturing industries that are less dependent on U.S. market access.
- Mining and Extractives: A Limited AGOA Footprint: While Tanzania is richly endowed with mineral resources (including gold, tanzanite, graphite, and rare earth elements), the mining and extractives sector did not significantly benefit from AGOA. This is mainly due to the structure of the agreement, which prioritised labour-intensive, value-added exports such as textiles and agriculture over raw or semi-processed commodities. Many mineral products already benefited from low or zero tariffs under the U.S.'s Most Favoured Nation regime, meaning AGOA’s preferential treatment offered minimal incremental advantage. The United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade reports that Tanzania's main export partners were, India, South Africa and the United Arab Emirate s, not the U.S. A limited exception exists in the artisanal gemstone sector , where select handmade products entered the U.S. under AGOA’s handicraft provisions .
Looking ahead, the expiry of AGOA may present an opportunity for Tanzania to accelerate the repositioning of its mining sector within strategic critical mineral supply chains, particularly as the U.S. and its partners seek secure sources of graphite, rare earths, and other inputs for clean energy technologies. Potential opportunities may lie in bilateral trade arrangements or partnerships aligned with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the Minerals Security Partnership.
Alternative Trade Routes and Agreements
To mitigate the effects of AGOA’s expiry, both Kenya and Tanzania can, amongst other measures, pursue alternative trade routes and agreements. Several opportunities exist:
- The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): As one of the largest free trade areas in the world, the AfCFTA promises to foster intra-African trade by eliminating many tariffs and harmonising trade rules. By diversifying their exports to other African nations, Kenya and Tanzania can mitigate the impact of losing preferential access to the U.S. market. However, this will require improved infrastructure, better integration into regional supply chains, and alignment with continental trade rules. It will also require accelerating the effective implementation of AfCFTA .
- Trade Agreements: Kenya benefits from an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union, which ensures preferential access to EU markets for a range of products, including agricultural goods and textiles. The UK, post-Brexit, has also entered into similar agreements with Kenya, further expanding market access. While not a party to an EPA, Tanzania (as a “Least Developed Country”) trades with the EU under the Everything-But Arms preference scheme (for instance duty-free and quota-free access for nearly all goods, except arms and ammunition LDC , also qualifies under the UK’s , to the European single market). post-Brexit Tanzania, as an Comprehensive Preferences tier of the Developing Countries Trading Scheme, meaning it receives the deepest tariff reductions and simplified rules under UK Import Law.
- Bilateral Agreements with the U.S.: Following AGOA’s expiry, both Kenya and Tanzania may seek to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the U.S. Although more complicated and time-consuming, these agreements could replace the market access provisions previously enjoyed under AGOA, especially in key sectors like agriculture and textiles. A key variable in this is the current U.S. administration’s approach to tariffs more generally, and the effect of this remains to be fully seen or felt.
- China and India Trade Partnerships: As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s growing involvement in African infrastructure projects offers opportunities for trade, particularly in manufacturing and industrial goods. India, too, is an emerging trade partner, with growing interest in East Africa’s resources and agricultural products.
Conclusion
The expiration of AGOA represents a significant turning point in the trade relations between East Africa and the United States. For Kenya and Tanzania, this potentially marks the end of a preferential trade era that has underpinned key sectors such as text manufacturing. The reiles, agriculture, and imposition of tariffs will raise the cost of doing business with the U.S., potentially diminishing the competitiveness of these countries’ exports. However, alternative trade routes, such as AfCFTA, enhanced tra de with China, the Middle East and India, bilateral agreements, and strengthened ties with the EU and other emerging markets, offer avenues for mitigating the impact. For both Kenya and Tanzania, the challenge now lies in adapting to a rapidly changing global trade environment by diversifying export markets, investing in value-added industries, and negotiating new trade deals that can plug the gap left by AGOA’s expiry.
At the same time, there are credible indications from the U.S. Government that a short-term extension of AGOA, possibly for one year, is under consideration. This would provide temporary relief to exporters while allowing time for broader reform discussions. However, the extension remains subject to Congressional approval, and its final form and timing are still uncertain.
Further updates will be shared in the next series of articles on AGOA developments.
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